{"model_version":"mlb_log5_v0","backtest":{"protocol":{"ratings":"Pythagorean (exp 1.83) on runs scored/allowed, shrunk g/(g+20) toward .500, reset each season, using only games strictly before the one being predicted.","matchup":"log5 + 3.5 points of home-field win probability.","warmup":"Games are scored only once BOTH teams have 20 prior games; earlier games are shrinkage, not prediction.","market":"Closing moneylines, proportionally devigged. Profit is at the actual quoted American price, 1 unit flat, on every disagreement of 3 points or more.","odds_licence":"MIT-licensed archive; seasons that failed reconciliation are reported without a profit figure."},"seasons":{"2015":{"games":2122,"accuracy":0.5504,"brier_model":0.247,"games_priced":2116,"brier_model_on_priced":0.247,"brier_market":0.2408,"accuracy_market":0.5832,"bets":1366,"wins":627,"losses":739,"hit_rate":0.459,"units":-51.03,"roi":-0.0374},"2016":{"games":2117,"accuracy":0.5541,"brier_model":0.247,"games_priced":2107,"brier_model_on_priced":0.2471,"brier_market":0.24,"accuracy_market":0.589,"bets":1385,"wins":604,"losses":781,"hit_rate":0.4361,"units":-114.36,"roi":-0.0826},"2017":{"games":2123,"accuracy":0.5502,"brier_model":0.2448,"games_priced":2117,"brier_model_on_priced":0.245,"brier_market":0.2395,"accuracy_market":0.5758,"bets":1447,"wins":669,"losses":778,"hit_rate":0.4623,"units":-19.07,"roi":-0.0132},"2018":{"games":2116,"accuracy":0.5794,"brier_model":0.2411,"games_priced":2112,"brier_model_on_priced":0.2412,"brier_market":0.24,"accuracy_market":0.5795,"bets":1294,"wins":642,"losses":652,"hit_rate":0.4961,"units":37.58,"roi":0.029},"2019":{"games":2118,"accuracy":0.5892,"brier_model":0.2368,"games_priced":2113,"brier_model_on_priced":0.2369,"brier_market":0.2336,"accuracy_market":0.6062,"bets":1319,"wins":597,"losses":722,"hit_rate":0.4526,"units":-11.83,"roi":-0.009},"2020":{"games":575,"accuracy":0.5896,"brier_model":0.2411},"2021":{"games":2121,"accuracy":0.5846,"brier_model":0.24,"games_priced":2113,"brier_model_on_priced":0.24,"brier_market":0.2366,"accuracy_market":0.5996,"bets":1288,"wins":576,"losses":712,"hit_rate":0.4472,"units":-38.54,"roi":-0.0299},"2022":{"games":2123,"accuracy":0.5714,"brier_model":0.2409},"2023":{"games":2125,"accuracy":0.5581,"brier_model":0.2455},"2024":{"games":2119,"accuracy":0.5588,"brier_model":0.2449},"2025":{"games":2123,"accuracy":0.544,"brier_model":0.2463}},"overall":{"games":12717,"accuracy":0.568,"brier_model":0.2428,"games_priced":12678,"brier_model_on_priced":0.2429,"brier_market":0.2384,"accuracy_market":0.5889,"bets":8099,"wins":3715,"losses":4384,"hit_rate":0.4587,"units":-197.26,"roi":-0.0244,"seasons_with_odds":[2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2021]},"overall_accuracy_all_seasons":{"games":21782,"accuracy":0.5647,"brier_model":0.2434,"seasons":[2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025]}},"attribution":"Game results and starting pitchers from Retrosheet. The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at \"www.retrosheet.org\". Closing moneylines from an MIT-licensed archive; seasons whose odds failed reconciliation are reported without a profit figure rather than dropped silently.","disclaimer":"Model research, not investment advice. Hypothetical flat-stake results at historical closing prices; EVIO places no orders and holds no customer funds."}